Trump is tangled in a web he himself has spun and has been reduced to fulminating and flailing about—Lear-like.
Iran, which he repeatedly declares has been military demolished, keeps firing at US targets in the Persian Gulf—and now at Israel. Plus, Tehran hasn’t budged from its terms for a deal, nor given any ground on its nuclear program. Yet Trump keeps saying that a deal is near and that Iran is indeed “begging” for it. Tehran is not the least intimidated by Trump and Hegseth saber-rattling.
Meanwhile, Israel, which receives $3.8 billion a year in free US military aid, ignores the ceasefire Trump arranged, and in effect now has a veto over any US-Iran deal, which Netanyahu sees as anathema. Trump is under pressure from, and beholden to, Israel’s powerful supporters in the US—pro-Israel donors and organizations above all, but also neocons and Evangelical Christians. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, has in effect said that Israel will do as it pleases in Lebanon and not be guided by Trump’s demands.
Meanwhile, the economic fallout from Trump’s war on Iran has yet to show its full force, despite the curious optimism of the oil futures market. By July, unless the Strait of Hormuz opens, the price of oil and others essential commodities will surge further and the world will move closer to a recession. Already, high fertilizer prices are having a devastating effect on the poorest people in the poorest countries (always the most vulnerable to global economic shocks), as hunger and poverty increase.
An American president who continually boasts about his toughness and deal-making wizardry looks weak, inept, and utterly at the mercy of events.